The 10-Year Horizon, Staying in the Game, & More
Today at a Glance
- Question: The 10-year horizon.
- Quote: Give your gift away.
- Framework: The Lindy Effect.
- Tweet: Buying a cashmere sweater.
- Article: Stay in the game.
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Question I'm wrestling with:
If you knew you would die in 10 years, what would you do today?
We've all seen a shorter-term version of this question: "If you knew you would die in a year, what would you do today?" Personally, I find that question minimally impactful, as the answer usually involves dramatic change—if I knew I would die in a year, I'd probably stop working altogether, spend all my time with my family, etc. That's not particularly useful insight.
The one year time horizon is too short. What if we extend it to 10 years?
10 years is long enough that you still have a lot of time left, but short enough that it's very quantifiable.
What would change in your life if you knew you wouldn't be around after 2033? What fears would melt away? What new fears would appear? Who would you remove from your life? Who would you spend more time with?
Spend some time thinking about it this weekend. My guess is this question will bring a few life changes to the surface that are worth making (even though we all hope to live much, much longer than that!).
(Share this question on Twitter!)
Quote I'm inspired by:
"The purpose of life is to discover your gift. The work of life is to develop it. The meaning of life is to give your gift away." — David Viscott
The three stages of life: Discover, Develop, Gift.
A simple formula for a life well-lived.
Framework I'm using:
The Lindy Effect
In The Parable of the Farmer and the Horse, I mentioned that parables have a sort of "Lindy Effect" signaling, whereby their survival and re-telling across the generations is a signal of their usefulness and value.
I received a handful of questions looking for a deeper explanation of the Lindy Effect, so figured it was worth covering.
The Lindy Effect is a useful framework for evaluating the durability and life expectancy of a technology or idea. The theory is that the future life expectancy of non-perishable items—like a technology or idea—is proportional to their age.
In simple terms: The longer it has already lasted, the higher the likelihood it will continue to last.
The term "Lindy Effect" is a reference to Lindy’s—a New York deli frequented by comedians in the 1960s. Author Albert Goldman used the term "Lindy's Law" in a 1964 article when covering the professional life expectancy of the comedians. He believed their future professional life expectancy was proportional to their time of exposure to date.
It was mathematician Benoit Mandlebrot who furthered the dialogue towards the current definition. In his book—The Fractal Geometry of Nature—Mandlebrot commented that the more stage appearances a Lindy's comedian made, the more future appearances he could be predicted to make.
The longer a comedian had lasted, the longer he would continue to last.
Author Nassim Taleb built upon Mandelbrot's work, formally coining the term "Lindy Effect" in his book, Antifragile.
He noted the Lindy Effect with books—the longer a book has been in print, the longer it is likely to survive:
"If a book has been in print for 40 years, I can expect it to be in print for another 40...if it survives another decade, then it will be expected to be in print another 50 years. Every year that passes without extinction doubles the additional life expectancy."
The Lindy Effect can be an effective lens through which to decide what content and ideas you consume. Things that have lasted have generally done so for good reason (as I mentioned with the parables). Breaking news won't be relevant in a few days, but the wisdom of the classics will be.
If you build the foundation of your "content diet" with the Lindy Effect in mind, you're unlikely to be led astray.
Tweet that made me go hmmm:
This type of thread is why I love Twitter. Fascinating, specific insight on a very random topic from someone who clearly knows what he's talking about.
Side Note: I don't have any plans to buy a cashmere sweater, but I wouldn't mind buying a Cashmere Goat. Ridiculously cute.
Article I absolutely loved:
Simply put, this is one of the best articles you'll read this year. It's a true emotional roller coaster that will make you think deeply about your daily actions and relationships.
I've talked about the fact that you're never out of the fight in life. You alone get to decide whether to keep moving forward. The core lesson of this piece carries a similar message: Stay in the game.
Bonus: It has a Hollywood-esque twist that you really have to read to believe.
Well worth the 5 minutes of your time this weekend.
